Gold Climbs Over 1% as Dollar Weakens and Yields Fall Ahead of Payrolls

Spot gold lifted 1.1% to US$4,434.70 an ounce by 0425 GMT, rebounding from a near one‑month trough seen the day before. Futures for the GCcv1 contract were up 1.5%, trading at US$4,480.10.

The rally was underpinned by a softer dollar and a slide in Treasury yields from recent highs, making greenback‑priced metals cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Investors are now braced for Friday’s U.S. non‑farm payrolls release, which could sharpen expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The ADP National Employment Report already indicated a modest rise in private payrolls in August.

"The payrolls report will probably be the biggest defining moment of the week," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. "If the jobs data misses expectations and September rate‑hike bets fall, gold could move higher. If prices cross the US$4,400 level, we could see a move toward US$4,500 and then US$4,700.")

The CME FedWatch Tool currently prices a 62% probability of a rate hike this month. A mixed report from the Fed on Wednesday showed modest growth in economic activity, slight employment gains, and moderate price increases—data that may not decisively sway policymakers ahead of the September 15‑16 meeting.

Gold has long been viewed as an inflation hedge, but rising rates raise the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset.

On the geopolitical front, senior aides to former President Donald Trump are reportedly urging restraint in the Iran conflict before the November midterm elections to protect Republican electoral prospects. White House officials may consider increasing military action after the Nov 3 vote.

Other metals mirrored the broader market trend: spot silver rose 1.2% to US$66.08, platinum climbed 1% to US$1,777.79, and palladium firmed 0.8% to US$1,356.50.