Gold Faces Crucial Turning Point: Falling Wedge and Fed Outlook

Gold’s chart against the U.S. dollar is carving a classic falling‑wedge shape that traders are watching closely for a breakout. At 4,023 USD, the metal sits below all four of its moving averages, tightening the wedge’s upper and lower trend lines.

A key support line sits at 3,920 USD. If that level fails, the next target is the wedge’s bottom trend line around 3,820 USD, which could trigger a sharper decline. A break below that line would signal a new bearish phase, while a bounce could push gold back into the 20‑, 50‑, 100‑, and 200‑period EMAs, turning the chart bullish.

The market’s direction hinges on tomorrow’s Fed policy announcement. The Federal Reserve’s target range is 3.50‑3.75 %, and the July 29 meeting will be an interim session without a dot plot. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference is expected to be the main catalyst. A hawkish stance could reinforce the wedge’s bearish thesis, whereas a dovish tone might invalidate it and lift the metal.

The Relative Strength Index sits at 43, comfortably above oversold territory but still below the neutral line, suggesting potential for a swing in either direction.

Central‑bank buying remains a critical demand driver. A noticeable drop in gold purchases by major banks could erode the floor that keeps prices from falling further.

Silver mirrors gold’s trajectory. The metal is trading near 57 USD, close to a recent support level of 56.04 USD that it bounced off after a brief pullback in crude prices. Silver’s 2026 all‑time high of roughly 120 USD and a sixth consecutive year of global supply shortfall add to its appeal as a safe‑haven asset.

The U.S. dollar’s strength is bolstered by the Fed’s rate outlook, with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs diverging as the dollar gains momentum. This currency dynamic further influences the relative attractiveness of non‑yielding assets like gold and silver.

In short, gold’s fate will be decided by the wedge’s breakout and the Fed’s policy tone tomorrow, while silver’s path will largely follow the same macro drivers.