Brent Climbs Past $100 as Middle East Tensions Intensify

On Wednesday, September 9, benchmark Brent crude futures surged beyond the $100 mark, reaching a six‑week high that has not been seen since July 24. At 8:02 am GMT (4:02 pm Singapore time), Brent traded at $99.93 a barrel, up $2.01 or 2.05 % from the previous close, after briefly touching $100.19 earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also advanced, trading at $94.52 a barrel, up $1.49 or 1.60 %.

The rally reflects growing concerns that the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran could persist longer than expected. Since the hostilities erupted on February 28, Brent has climbed more than a quarter from its early‑month levels and has touched a peak of $126.41 on April 30.

Recent attacks by Iran‑backed Houthi forces on Saudi energy infrastructure have set several oil facilities ablaze and threatened the Red Sea shipping lanes that serve as a vital alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. These developments have prompted market participants to factor in a higher probability of supply disruptions and a sustained security premium on oil prices.

"The key risk is whether the latest strikes on oil tankers will reduce ship‑to‑ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, a route that has kept global markets stable," said Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics.

Major banks—including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and HSBC—have recently lifted their crude‑price forecasts in response to the heightened geopolitical risk.

Data from Rystad Energy indicate that before the August 30 flare‑up, roughly 8 million to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, double the volume of the preceding week. More recently, that figure has fallen below 2 million bpd.

"This is not a one‑off spike; it’s a structural shift that will only widen," warned Jeffrey Currie, co‑chairman at Abaxx Markets.

While non‑OPEC producers such as the United States, Canada and Guyana have increased output, the International Energy Agency projected that global oil supply would decline by 4.3 million bpd—about 4 %—this year.

Elite Academy will continue to monitor these developments and provide in‑depth analysis of the market’s response to geopolitical events.