Gold Holds Near $4,345 as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Dampens Rate‑Hike Bets

During the Asian trading session on August 10, the gold‑to‑USD pair (XAUUSD) hovered around $4,345, nudging up roughly 0.2 % from the previous close. The rally follows a sharp surge last week that lifted the metal to a seven‑week high, driven by a surprisingly weak July non‑farm payroll report.

U.S. employment figures for July fell by 23,000 jobs – a stark contrast to the 80,000 increase that markets had priced in – and marked the first month‑over‑month decline in recent history. Earlier revisions to May and June data added another 103,000 jobs to the negative tally, with June’s growth cut from 57,000 to 20,000. While the unemployment rate eased to 4.1 % from 4.2 %, the labor‑force participation rate slipped to 61.4 %, close to a five‑and‑a‑half‑year low, and year‑on‑year average hourly earnings slowed to 3.2 %.

The disappointing jobs data quickly eroded expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Market odds for a hike dropped from over 50 % to 43.9 %, and the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields fell, providing a boost to the non‑yielding gold.

Looking ahead, the next key catalysts are the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). The July CPI, due on August 12, is forecast to rise 3.4 % year‑on‑year – a slight decline from June’s 3.5 % – while core CPI is expected to tick down to 2.5 %. These figures will shape the Fed’s policy outlook and, in turn, gold’s trajectory.

From a technical standpoint, the metal remains in a bullish zone but faces a critical resistance level at $4,380. A clear breakout could push prices toward $4,500, whereas a failure to hold above $4,380 may trigger a pullback toward the $4,300 support. If inflation data suggest a tightening cycle, further downside could be on the cards.

In short, gold’s near‑term path hinges on next week’s inflation releases and how the market interprets the Fed’s stance on rates.