Oil Prices Edge Higher as Middle East Conflict Reignites Supply Concerns

Brent crude futures ticked up 0.7 % to US$91.15 a barrel at 0640 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.8 % to US$86.46, after a week of sharp gains that saw Brent climb 2.7 % and WTI 2.8 % to levels last seen in late August.

The rally follows a flare‑up in tensions between the United States and Iran, with President Donald Trump threatening additional strikes after a month‑long pause in hostilities. The threat has revived fears that Iranian retaliation could damage energy infrastructure in the Gulf and disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Maritime data from Kpler showed only five commodity vessels passing the Strait on Monday, well below the 10‑day average of roughly 14, and none were liquid tankers. A tanker reported being struck by three projectiles near the Strait, though no casualties or environmental damage were reported.

Analysts note that the Strait, which once handled about a fifth of global oil supplies, now transits far fewer barrels than pre‑conflict levels. With U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories down 3.1 million barrels to 286.6 million, and China’s import capacity under seasonal pressure, market buffers are tightening.

A Reuters poll of analysts in August projects oil prices to stay above US$80 a barrel through 2026, as shipping disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on supply.