The euro rises cautiously awaiting U.S. jobs data

Market News · samer saeed · September 4, 2026

The euro rises cautiously awaiting U.S. jobs data

• The euro is poised to achieve a weekly gain • The dollar is under negative pressure due to falling U.S. yields • Less aggressive comments from one of the Fed's key members • Strong odds of raising European interest rates in September

Weekly trading over the course of this week's trades, which officially ends at settlement today, the euro is up to now about 0.5% against the U.S. dollar, poised to achieve a fourth weekly gain in the last five weeks.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell more than 0.25% on Friday, continuing its losses for the third day in a row, moving away from its highest levels in three years, which puts more negative pressure on the U.S. dollar exchange rate.

Following the above comments and according to the "Fed Watch" tool of the CME Group: the odds of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the September meeting rose from 40% to 51%, and the odds of a 25 basis point rate hike fell from 60% to 49%.

Expectations for the euro's performance are here on the "FX News Today" site: if U.S. jobs data come in below market expectations, the odds of a Fed rate hike in September will decline, leading to more negative pressure on U.S. dollar levels against a basket of global currencies, led by the euro.

U.S. equity indices rose strongly during Thursday's trading, as investors reduced bets on rate hikes, after Fed Chair Christopher Waller said he would support keeping the target range for federal funds unchanged if data show inflationary pressures easing.

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