Oil Market Analysis – Monday, September 28, 2026

Crude oil prices are trending upward today, driven by complex dynamics involving geopolitical tensions and concerns regarding global supply:

- Brent Crude: Trading near $105.64 per barrel (up more than 1.2%).

- US Light Crude (WTI): Trading near the $93.10–$94.20 per barrel range (up between 0.8% and 2%).

1. Fundamental Drivers

- Geopolitical Tensions and Navigation: Concerns regarding supplies and maritime navigation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz continue to provide strong support for crude oil prices, establishing a high price floor.

- OPEC+ Balance and Supply: OPEC+ maintains its cautious production management policy to ensure market stability, thereby limiting the likelihood of a sharp drop in supply.

- Chinese Demand and Trade: Markets have been bolstered by the mutual de-escalation of tariffs between Washington and Beijing, reinforcing expectations of economic recovery and increased energy demand in the world's largest oil importer.

- Dollar and Interest Rate Impact: The strength of the US dollar and rising bond yields act as a barrier to further gains, as they increase the cost of holding commodities for holders of other currencies.

2. Technical Outlook

- General Trend: Prices are predominantly trending upward on the daily timeframe, with attempts to break through nearby resistance levels.

- Moving Averages: Brent and US crude are trading in neutral-to-bullish territory above key technical support levels, attempting to regain upward momentum to break above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50).

- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The indicator is trading in moderately positive territory (between 50 and 58), suggesting room for further upside before reaching overbought levels.

Expected Trading Scenarios

- Bullish Scenario (Most Likely): Stability above the $105.00 level for Brent and $93.00 for WTI supports a move to test $106.80, followed by $108.50.

- Bearish Scenario (Corrective): Should the $104.10 level for Brent be broken—confirmed by a 4-hour candle close—we may witness a temporary corrective decline targeting the $102.30 area to regroup buying momentum.