US Markets Post Mixed Gains Ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech

The S&P 500 edged up 0.17% to a one‑week high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14% to a two‑week peak. The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.18%, dragging the tech‑heavy index lower as chip and AI‑infrastructure stocks faltered. E‑mini futures mirrored the spot trend: the S&P 500 contract (ESU26) advanced 0.10%, whereas the Nasdaq contract (NQU26) fell 0.20%.\n\nInvestors are holding their breath for Fed Chair Warsh’s address at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Market participants are keen to hear his guidance on the economic outlook and the central bank’s path to bringing inflation back to target.\n\nChipmaker Marvell Technology posted a drop of more than 7%, pulling the Nasdaq 100 down after the company warned that its Q3 adjusted gross margin would miss consensus. The slide in Marvell’s shares has weighed on the broader AI‑infrastructure sector.\n\nOn the macro front, the August MNI Chicago PMI fell sharply to 47.1, the steepest contraction in eight months and well below the expected rise to 57.9.\n\nOil prices slipped over 1% as new data suggested a larger supply of crude from the Persian Gulf, with exports rising to 15–16 million barrels per day—about two‑thirds of pre‑war levels. The possibility that Venezuela may exit OPEC also added to price‑war fears, further easing pressure on WTI.\n\nDespite the negative sentiment, earnings expectations remain upbeat. The S&P 500 is projected to record nearly 32% earnings growth in Q2, outpacing the 23% forecast and nearly quadrupling the average growth rate since Q4 2013. AI spending is expected to drive most of this expansion, with AI‑infrastructure stocks contributing roughly 60% of the S&P’s earnings‑per‑share growth. So far, 86% of the 486 S&P 500 firms that have reported Q2 results have beaten estimates.\n\nThe market currently prices in a 36% probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on September 15‑16.\n\nInternationally, the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.82%, China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.11% from a one‑and‑a‑half‑week high, and Japan’s Nikkei‑225 closed up 0.41%.\n\nSeptember 10‑year Treasury notes fell by two ticks, with the yield climbing 0.4 basis points to 4.680%. The move reflects pressure from position squaring and long‑liquidation ahead of Warsh’s speech.\n\nEuropean government bonds are on the rise: the 10‑year German bund hit a 15‑year high of 3.286%, up 1.2 basis points to 3.265%; the UK 10‑year gilt rose 1.3 basis points to 5.043%.\n\nEurozone economic confidence for August climbed 1.3 points to 98.4, a seven‑month high that exceeded expectations of 97.5. The market is discounting a 97% chance of a 25‑basis‑point ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on September 10.