Gold Hovers Near Weekly Peak Ahead of US Jobs Data Release

The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by more than 0.25% on Friday, marking its third consecutive day of losses and moving away from three-year highs, which adds further downward pressure on the U.S. dollar exchange rate.

• Pricing of the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the September meeting rose from 40% to 51%, while the probability of a rate hike fell by about 25 basis points from 60% to 49%.

• Similarly, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the December meeting increased from 13% to 18%, and the probability of a rate hike fell by roughly 25 basis points from 87% to 82%.

U.S. jobs data will be used to reprice the above probabilities. Later today, markets await the U.S. monthly jobs report, which will include key labor market data, especially the number of new jobs added in the non‑farm sector in August, as well as the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.

By 12:30 GMT, the non‑farm payrolls data are expected to show the U.S. economy added 55,000 jobs in August, rebounding from a loss of 23,000 jobs in July, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings projected to rise by 0.3% after a 0.1% increase in the previous reading.

The SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold‑backed ETF, saw its gold holdings fall on Thursday by about 3.14 metric tons, bringing the total down to 1,053.48 metric tons, down from a peak of 1,056.62 metric tons—the highest level since April 20.

U.S. equity indices rose strongly during Thursday’s trading as investors scaled back bets on rate hikes, after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged if data showed easing inflationary pressures.