Gold Analysis – Friday, September 25, 2026

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around the $4,275–$4,285 per ounce range, influenced by volatility and short-term corrective pressure amidst US monetary policy headwinds and rising bond yields.

Technical Analysis (Intraday Trading)

- General Trend (4-Hour Chart - H4): Mildly bearish/sideways with a short-term corrective nature, while trading above key medium-term support zones.

- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Hovering near the 38 level (a neutral zone leaning towards bearish/selling).

- Moving Averages (SMA20 & VWAP): Positioned above the current price, exerting localized downward pressure on trading activity.

Pivotal Support and Resistance Levels

Key Resistance Levels:

- $4,313: First resistance level; a breakout here paves the way for a return to the uptrend.

- $4,376: Second resistance level.

Key Support Levels:

- $4,255: First and critical support level; a break below this could drive the price toward lower zones.

- $4,202: Second support level, expected to come into play if selling pressure intensifies.

Key Factors and Economic Drivers

- US Monetary Policy and Interest Rates: Hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials and expectations that interest rates will remain high to curb inflation increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.

- Bond Yields and the Dollar: Rising US bond yields exert direct downward pressure on precious metal prices.

- Hedging and Central Bank Demand: Despite near-term pressure, gold receives structural support over the medium and long term driven by continued central bank buying and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Expected Trading Scenarios

- Bearish Scenario (Preferred for short-term trades): Breaking current levels and stabilizing below $4,255 paves the way toward targets at $4,202, followed by $4,157.

- Bullish Scenario (Recovery): Rising back above the $4,313 level and holding there invalidates the near-term bearish outlook and pushes the price to test $4,376.