The Black Sea crisis reaches Arab bakeries.

Bread represents one of the most sensitive components of food security in the Arab world, the largest wheat‑importing region in the world, which makes disruptions at the Black Sea ports more than just a distant commercial crisis. Every increase in the cost of imported wheat is passed on either to consumers through higher prices or to governments through a larger subsidy bill.

In June 2024, the Egyptian government raised the price of a loaf of subsidised local bread from 5 qirsh (10 % of the American cent that makes 100 of it one dollar) to 20 qirsh (0.39 cent), the first increase since 1989. The International Food Policy Research Institute at the time attributed the decision to reliance on imports, rising wheat prices, and a weak pound.

Cairo is already trying to curb the transmission of pressures to consumers, as media reports indicate that Egyptian authorities imposed controls on the prices of non‑subsidised bread since March, and expanded a cash‑support programme in mid‑August to include more food items.

In Europe, the European Corn Exchange Association reduced its estimates for soft wheat production in the EU and Britain to 140.8 million tonnes due to summer heat and drought, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its estimates of global wheat stocks at the end of the season to 272.8 million tonnes.

Reuters quoted traders saying that two ships were scheduled to carry about 60,000 tonnes of French wheat to Egypt from the port of Le Palais on France’s western coast on 30 August last year, indicating a growing priority to secure supplies even as alternative costs rise.

Standard & Poor’s Global Commodity Insights says that Egypt has enough wheat to cover its needs until around next February, while large buyers can wait for the arrival of southern‑hemisphere crops from Australia and Argentina to the market, and this margin is what currently separates a price crisis from a supply crisis.