Hungary’s Forint Gains Momentum as Central Bank Signals Support

ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak highlighted that the likelihood of further tightening by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve has diminished, a development that should ease external pressure on the Polish Zloty. Yet the foreign‑exchange market remains wary of a potential dovish shift from the National Bank of Poland, a move they see as a negative for the currency.

When comparing the two markets, the economists noted a clear divergence. The Hungarian Forint, they argue, continues to benefit from a strong convergence narrative even as the National Bank of Hungary signals a more dovish stance. In contrast, the Polish Zloty is more vulnerable to any easing in the NBP’s rhetoric, largely because Poland’s timeline for adopting the euro remains distant.

The team sees a softer tone from the NBP as carrying greater downside risk for the Zloty than similar signals from Hungary’s central bank would for the Forint. Looking ahead, they anticipate that Governor Adam Glapiński may adopt a somewhat dovish tone at Thursday’s press conference, but predict that substantive debate over rate cuts will only pick up after the summer.

In short, Hungary’s forint is positioned to ride the wave of convergence optimism, while Poland’s Zloty remains exposed to potential dovish policy moves from its own central bank.