Oil Market Analysis – Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Oil prices are retreating today, settling below the $100-per-barrel mark; Brent crude is sliding toward the $98.50–$99.18 range, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading near $90.17. This marks the sixth consecutive session of decline, driven by a reduction in the "geopolitical risk premium."

1. Fundamental Drivers

- US-Iran Talks: Geopolitical concerns eased following Qatari-mediated talks in New York addressing de-escalation and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, thereby alleviating pressure on crude oil prices.

- Saudi Supply Flows: The gradual resumption of operations on the East-West pipeline (towards Yanbu) and the stabilization of shipping traffic have improved actual supply flows to the market.

- US Oil Inventories (EIA): Markets are awaiting data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), with expectations of a decline in inventories by approximately 700,000 barrels.

3. Expected Trading Scenarios for Today

Bearish Correction Scenario (Intraday Bias):

- Condition: Continued downward pressure below the $100 mark for Brent.

- Target: Testing support levels at $95.00–$96.00 per barrel to gauge buyer response along the upward trend line.

Bullish Scenario (Rebound):

- Condition: Successfully building momentum at current support zones and breaking above $100.50 with a confirming candle.

- Target: Re-testing $103.50, followed by $105.00.

3. Expected Trading Scenarios for Today

Bullish Scenario (favored, given the momentum):

Condition: Breaking above the $4,376–$4,400 range and sustaining that position (confirmed by a 4-hour or 1-hour candle close).

Targets: A surge toward $4,447, followed by the $4,510 level.

Sideways/Bearish Scenario (if the rise fails):

Condition: Price rejection at the resistance zones ($4,376–$4,400) and a break below the $4,325 level.

Targets: Retesting the $4,300 and subsequently the $4,250 zones to gauge buyer response.