Oil & Gas Markets Stall Amid OPEC+ Production Boost and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Oil prices are holding in a tight corridor as markets absorb the latest OPEC+ supply plans and lingering trade tensions. The alliance is slated to lift output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, adding a cumulative 1.78 million barrels per day to 2025 supply – a figure that represents more than 1.5 % of global demand.

Brent crude, which had briefly surged past $80 amid geopolitical jitters, has since retreated to around $67.90. Morgan Stanley now projects a decline to roughly $60 by early 2026, citing a projected supply surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day and a gradual easing of geopolitical risk.

WTI is trading near $67.08, confined between $64.00 and $67.00 after a sharp drop from $77.12. The benchmark sits below both its 50‑day (≈$65.00) and 200‑day (≈$68.00) moving averages, reinforcing a bearish structure.

Natural gas futures are hovering around $3.47, caught in a narrow band just above the $3.40 support level. A recent break below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $3.57 has exposed the market to further downside, especially as prices remain under the 50‑EMA ($3.61) and 200‑EMA ($3.78). The chart shows a clear downtrend from a $4.11 peak, with lower highs and a fading bounce structure.

Key technical thresholds for gas include a potential slide toward $3.30 and $3.18 if the $3.40 floor fails, while a rally above $3.57 would be required to shift sentiment. For WTI, a confirmed break below $64.00 could trigger a move toward $63.00 and $61.80, whereas an upside breakout above $67.16 would challenge the current trend.

Brent remains in a tight consolidation between $66.75 and $69.90, with the 23.6 % Fibonacci level at $69.93 acting as firm resistance. The benchmark sits below its 50‑EMA ($70.76) and 200‑EMA ($70.47). Without a decisive break above $70.00 on strong volume, the market is likely to drift lower, potentially exposing a drop below $66.75 that could reach $64.96 and $63.48.

In summary, oil and gas markets are trapped in narrow ranges, with supply dynamics and technical levels dictating the near‑term direction. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels for any breakout confirmation.